FDUSD Arb Desk

How this works. Each Binance trade is grouped into the order that caused it. A bot is detected when an order on one FDUSD pair is mirrored on the other pair with the same FDUSD size, within 2%, inside one second. The "chance matches" figure repeats the search with one pair shifted by a minute; it shows how many matches pure coincidence would produce. Bots that only post quotes on both pairs leave no trades to match, so bot activity here is a floor, not a total. Capital figures come from the full order book, refreshed every 20 seconds, and assume the books stay as they are while the order runs. Arbitrage cycles are linked to their rebalancing leg by finding a USDC/USDT order for the exact USDC amount, within 0.3%, inside 200 ms. In a 6-hour test this found 55 of 83 cycles, mostly 1 to 9 ms after the first leg, and none when shifted by 90 seconds. Crypto routes: orders over $20,000 on the busiest crypto/FDUSD pairs are checked against the same crypto amount, within 0.5%, on its USDT and USDC pairs inside one second. Dollar values use Binance's USDT/USD and USDC/USD pairs.